But the inconsistency has in part been explained by Gunkel, who has rightly emphasized that the writer did not freely invent his materials but derived them in the main from tradition, as he held that these mysterious traditions of his people were, if rightly expounded, forecasts of the time to come.
But these forecasts were ultimately upset, not only by Lord Spencer's illness and his removal.
They must watch demand, be able to form reasonable anticipations of its move ments, and at the same time know the existing stocks of cotton, the sales taking place from day to day, and the best forecasts of the coming supplies.
The official figures are supplemented from time to time by numerous private forecasts, for instance those in " Neild's circular."
Prince Andrew's second letter, written near Vitebsk after the French had occupied that town, gave a brief account of the whole campaign, enclosed for them a plan he had drawn and forecasts as to the further progress of the war.