Presidential Debates Mirror Long-term School Decline

Updated following the Third Presidential Debate:
By Paul JJ Payack

Researchers at yourDictionary.com (YDC), the premier global language portal, have performed a detailed analysis of the current series of Presidential Debates (and the major-party convention acceptance speeches) in terms of word usage choices, grade reading-level appropriateness, and the use of such grammatical constructions as passive voice. YDC applied the well-regarded Flesch-Kincaid Reading Scale to examine the length of words and sentences, the number of paragraphs, and other language parameters in order to gauge the complexity of the debaters' speech.

The results of yourDictionary.com's analysis show that the grade level of the language of famous political debates, from the famous Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858 to current series of presidential debates, has declined from a 12th grade level to a high 7th-grade reading level.

Lincoln-Douglas Debates
In the Lincoln-Douglas debates, Stephen Douglas' seven speeches averaged a 12th-grade level (11.9) while Lincoln's averaged 11.2. The difference is explained by the fact that, although both used about the same number of words, Lincoln broke his speech down into shorter paragraphs, a stylistic choice probably intended to make his points easier to understand.

(For an added comparison we analyzed Washington's Farewell Address, which also came in at a 12th grade reading level.)

FDR's Declaration of War
President Franklin Roosevelt's declaration of war in December 1941 maintained the standard of his predecessors at a grade-level of 11.5. (Though the famous first sentence, "…a day which shall live in infamy …", is actually grammatically incorrect. That and which are relative pronouns. Relative pronouns are used when linking a subordinate clause to a main clause. Though this distinction is rapidly fading, in general, you use which when the information in the subordinate clause does not impact the meaning of the information in the main clause. An example would be "The presidential election, which occurs every four years, is scheduled for the first Tuesday of November.")

Historical Speeches and Debates

Figure 1. Historical Speeches and Debates

Nationally Televised Presidential Addresses
The first nationally televised debates, however, marked the beginning of the downtrend. John Kennedy's readability grade level was 9.6 while Richard Nixon's was 9.1. The general consensus is that Kennedy 'won' the debates on points of style and his command of the new medium.

Presidents Carter and Ford are to be credited for momentarily stemming the decline. In the Ford-Carter debates, President Carter maintained a 10.4 level and President Ford's reached 11th-grade level. In the Carter-Reagan debate, the level of Carter's language reached that of the 12th grade while Reagan's achieved a respectable 10.7. But since then, the grade-level of presidential debates has returned to decline.

In the Reagan-Mondale debates of 1984, Reagan's arguments averaged a grade level of 9.75, down a grade from his debate with Carter. Mondale's sunk even farther to 8.7.

The linguistic level of presidential debates eroded further during the Dukakis-Bush debates of 1988. Dukakis' readability level averaged 8.85 while Bush's averaged that of the 6.7 grade. But this was not the bottom.

In the Bush-Clinton-Perot debates of 1992, Bush's readability level 6.5, Clinton's 8.5, and Ross Perot's was 6.3, according to the study by yourDictionary.com.

The Clinton-Dole debates in 1996 remained at that level, with Clinton scoring 8.3 on the Flesch- Kincaid test and Dole, 6.3.

Televised Presidential Debates (Grade Level)

Figure 2. Televised Presidential Debates

The First Bush-Gore Debates
This brings us to the first Bush-Gore debate of 2000. Are these candidates speaking to the American people on a higher level than their predecessors? To their credit, on average, they are. In the first presidential debate, Gore's readability score on the Flesch-Kincaid scale was 8.4 (identical with Clinton's average over his two debates) while Bush scored 7.1 (actually half a grade-level higher than his father in the Bush-Clinton-Perot debates of 1992).

These results are significantly lower than the Vice Presidential Debate, where both candidates scored the highest ratings since the Carter-Reagan debates of 1980. Joe Lieberman came in at 9.9 and Dick Cheney, 9.1.

Presidential and VP Debates 2000

Figure 3. Presidential and VP Debates 2000

Just as interesting is what the Candidates' word choices tell us about what they are thinking.

The Second Bush-Gore Debates
The second round of presidential debates, in which the candidates sat around a table rather than stand behind podiums, reflected a lowering of the Flesch-Kincaid grade levels in the speech of the presidential candidates Al Gore and George Bush. According to yourDictionary.com's analysis, Bush's speech during the first debate on October 3, was rated at a level of 7.1 grade while Gores was 8.4. In the second round of debates and the grade level of their speech dropped from 7.1 to 6.5 for Bush and 8.4 to 7.7 for Gore.

Just for comparison, 7.7 was the level of Pat Buchanan acceptance speech at the Reform Party convention was 7.7 while Ralph Nader's acceptance for the Green Party reached the 12th grade level-very high by recent standards. A typical discussion on NBC's "Meet the Press" ranges around the mid 8th-grade level (8.5).

The Third Bush-Gore Debate
The third debate was a town meeting in which the candidates responded to questions from the audience rather than from Jim Lehrer. The grade level dropped insignificantly: Gore 7.6, Bush 6.3. The town meeting format provided an interesting benchmark: the audience. The grade level of the audience's questions was 9.1 (approximately that of the vice presidential debates). Is it possible that the presidential candidates are speaking below the heads of the electorate?

An intriguing pattern emerges between how much each candidate said in each debate and the public reaction to the debates.

Counting the Candidates' Words

Notice in the table above that Bush spoke slightly more than Gore in the first and third debates (7854: 7375 and 6866: 6153, respectively). In the second speech, Gore outspoke Bush by almost 2: 1. What is interesting is that the CNN/USA Today polls taken right after the debates showed a slight advantage for Gore in the first and third debates but the same poll showed Gore the loser of the second debate. Does this mean that Gore could win by a landslide if he said nothing more until November 7? Only a rigorously controlled test could settle this question and it is doubtful that the candidate would agree to one before the election.

What Do the Candidates Words Tell us about their Thinking?
Despite the contentious history of the analysis of the words in the speeches of politicians, it still holds a fascination for the politically curious. Especially in a debate with as much repetition as the first Presidential debate. For this reason, yourDictionary.com has prepared a word-count analysis of the first debate and will continue to do for the remaining two debates. While we understand that this analysis reveals little about the motivations of the candidates, it does tell us interesting things about the way they talk.

Both candidates exhibited a proclivity for political buzzwords. Governor Bush repeated the phrases "fuzzy math," "phony numbers," and "mediscare" several times during the debate. Gore used two: "locked box" (7 times) and "anti-choice," preferring that word to "pro-life." The word 'choice' has become politically 'loaded' with a variety of charged meanings depending upon the context in which it is used. (In general, Gore maintained an odd silence on the issue of abortion. Bush clearly thought it important to use the word (8 times) and Gore (once) did not.

Gore used the word "America" only twice; Bush referred to American 17 times. One thing is for sure, the federal government was on Bush's mind much more than Gore's; Bush used the two words in the phrase a total of 35 times to Gore's 10. Apparently, it worries Bush more than Gore. In terms of word usage, taxes are also a major concern to both candidates with Bush mentioning taxes 33 times to Gore's 25.

Eyes on the Future
Al Gore used the future tense of verbs with the auxiliary "will" 38 times to Bush's 28 and the past tense of "will," "would" 36 times to Bush's 23. At first glance it might appear that Gore has his eye on the future more than Bush; however, we have to keep in mind Bush's origins. He is from Texas, where the future tense of verbs is often indicated by "going to" rather than "will". Thus he is more likely to say, "I am going to do that" than "I will do that." Bush used "going" 58 times to Gore's 17.

It is interesting to note in this vein, that Gore used the word "new" 28 times to Bush's 10 (excluding one reference to "New York"). Eight of Bushes references to new things (mostly his changes in Washington) were positive while all of Gore's references have positive references. This could reflect the Republican aversion to new government programs and their general desire to reduce the role of government in individual's lives. This is reflected in Bush's reference to "federal government" 38 times to Gore's 10.

Personable versus Folksy
Was Gore more personable? He referred to Jim Lehrer, the moderator, by name ("Jim") 17 times while Bush referred to Lehrer by name only 5 times. Gore referred to Bush as "Governor Bush" 19 times, no doubt emphasizing Bush's current role, which Gore no doubt construes as limited in scope or responsibility. Bush mentioned Gore by name only 6 times, as "Mr. Gore" (1), "Vice President Gore" (3), and "the Gore and Clinton folks" (2) getting back to his 'folksiness.' Why couldn't they sit down, calling each other "Al" and "George" and just talk about their competing world views, or weltanschauungs?

Taxes
Clearly taxes were on everyone's mind. Gore used the term 25 times and Bush, 33. It is interesting to note that only Gore used the word "tax-payer" (3 times). (We don't have to repeat how many times he used the phrases "richest ten percent," do we?)

Education
Gore used the words "school(s)" and "college(s)" 32 times to Bush's 19. Both are clearly interested in education but Gore seems to at least want to talk about it more.

Another interesting side-note. The man most interested in fostering the internet never mentioned the word but his opponent, George Bush, mentioned it 3 times in jibes at Gore's embellishing his contribution to it.

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