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leading indicators Finance Definition

One of three composite indices published monthly by the Conference Board (an international, independent organization that creates and distributes information about management and the marketplace) around the 20th day of every month in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. The other indicators are the lagging indicators and the coincident index. These indices comprise an analytic system that is designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The 11 components of the leading indicators index are average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, average weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials, vender performance, the slower deliveries diffusion index, manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods, building permits for new houses, stock prices, M2 measures of money supply, the interest rate spread measured by the ten-year Treasury bonds less federal funds, and the index of consumer expectations.